Scottish Open 2022 golf betting tips: Relentless Scheffler can conquer Scotland

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Read this week's best Guru bets for the latest PGA and DP World Tour event with golf tips and picks ranging from 12/1 to 80/1

The Guru’s golf betting tips stand at at profit of +112.63 points and an ROI of 65.1% this season.

We’ve previewed this week’s Scottish Open from the Renaissance Club in North Berwick and highlighted the best bets of the week.

The tournament has attracted an exceptionally strong field as the world’s best prepare for the 150th Open Championship at St Andrews next week.

Here are our latest PGA Tour picks for the Scottish Open.

The Guru’s outright picks:

  • 2pts each-way Scottie Scheffler (12/1, William Hill, 8 places)
  • 1pt each-way Tommy Fleetwood (50/1, BetFred, 8 places)
  • 0.5pts each-way Adrian Meronk (80/1, UniBet, 6 places)

First round leader:

  • 1pt each-way Justin Rose (60/1, SkyBet, 6 places)

Profiling the winner

This is the fourth year in succession that the Renaissance Club has hosted the Scottish Open.

That’s pretty handy for a profiling perspective, as we have three years’ of data to analyse.

The course plays as a par-71 and roughly 7,293 yards. I say roughly, as the length can vary per day and is not officially confirmed at the time of writing.

We saw very low winning scores in 2019 (-22) and 2021 (-18), which were played in serene conditions. With a nice forecast for the next week, we might be looking at something similar on Sunday, although a steady 14-15mph wind might reduce it slightly.

The 2020 renewal (winning score -11) took place in slightly tougher conditions but players still made plenty of birdies.

Despite the time of year and its proximity to the Open, the Renaissance is not an historical links course but it definitely has a links feel about it.

Recent form has been pretty important, with all but one of the last 12 winners recording a top-20 finish in their last four starts. Ten of those victors had recorded a top-10 finish in the same period.

Event form is perhaps even more telling.

Ten of the last 11 winners here had finished in the top-31 at an event prior. Debutants have invariably struggled.

On a course that’s played pretty easily over the last few years, it goes without saying that approach play and greens-in-regulation will be important.

Breaking that down further, look for proximity stats to fine tune your selections, while a decent putter will perhaps make the difference between winning and losing. The greens here are fescue-based.

Winners have ranked third, second and fourth for Shots gained (SG) tee-to-green in the last three renewals at this course.

Quality

The Scottish Open hasn’t been a bad event for favoured runners, with Aaron Rai (50/1), Bernd Wiesberger (40/1), Rafa Cabrera-Bello (50/1), Alex Noren (50/1), Rickie Fowler (22/1), Justin Rose (14/1), Phil Mickelson (22/1) and Luke Donald (10/1) all victorious in the last 11 renewals.

This year, there is a difference.

It’s the first time this has been sanctioned as a PGA Tour event, and there’s an influx of 75 golfers mostly from the US. That leaves us with the strongest field in Scottish Open history.

As such, this year’s renewal has far more quality than ever before, and punters will need to decide if the cream will rise to the top or if the Europeans will continue to (mostly) hold sway.

Scottie up for the Scottish

I can’t resist SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER as this week’s headline pick.

The Texan is the world’s number one golfer and has won four tournaments in 2022, including the Masters.

Those four victories came in the spell of two months (February-April), but Scheffler has hardly lost form in the time since.

He missed the cut at the PGA, but has finished in the top-18 on his other six starts – a run which has seen him finish runner-up at the U.S. Open and Charles Schwab Challenge.

Importantly, Scheffler played in this event last year, finishing 12th.

An opening-day round of 72, on his first sighter of the course, put paid to his chances.

But with that outing under his belt, Scottie recorded scores of 63-67-69 to threaten the top ten.

His 63 was the joint-lowest round of the week.

I’m hopeful with that experience, alongside his rapid progress throughout 2022, he’ll be a leading contender this week as he looks to lay a marker for the Open.

You can pretty much make his profile fit any golf course on the planet, but he should be well-suited to the Renaissance. He ranks seventh for SG tee-to-green on the PGA Tour this season, seventh for SG approach, 21st for SG around-the-green and is a very solid putter (39th).

Scheffler is first for greens-in-regulation and third for birdie average, both of which could be significant factors this week.

He won’t mind the wind picking up and is one of the best in such conditions.

All told, I think he should be clear favourite and I’m not sure the golfing world has caught up with his meteoric rise just yet.

It might continue in Scotland this week.

Fleetwood can fire

TOMMY FLEETWOOD has four top-30 efforts at the Scottish Open, including a tenth place finish in 2015 and when runner-up in 2020.

I’m really drawn to that latter effort, as conditions might be similar this week.

Fleetwood lost out in a playoff to Aaron Rai that year, having shot 69-68-69-67 for a remarkably consistent effort.

Indeed, in finishing 26th last year, Tommy recorded a scorecard of 66-70-68-70 which means over the course of eight rounds on this golf course, he’s shot between 66 and 70 on every occasion.

That strongly suggests he’s very much at home, and he’s renowned as one of the best players of these courses in the world.

On first glance, he’s having a mixed season which includes three missed cuts and form figures of 35-MC-46 upon arrival to Scotland.

But dig a bit deeper and you’ll find nine top-22 efforts from just 16 individual strokeplay events on both major tours this season.

That includes 14th at the Masters and fifth at the PGA. Fleetwood is in deceptively good form.

Ninth for SG around-the-green, 37th for SG putting and 41st for SG tee-to-green, he’s 28th for SG total on the PGA Tour this season.

Long overdue a win but perfectly capable of competing, Fleetwood will want to go one better than 2020 and has a score to settle at the Renaissance.

Perhaps inspired by Matt Fitzpatrick’s U.S. Open glory, maybe it’ll be Fleetwood to put his name up in lights ahead of the 150th Open Championship.

Meronk value to produce more magic

ADRIAN MERONK won last week’s Irish Open and he looks a big price to continue that form in Scotland, despite the increased competition on show.

He fended off perennial DP World Tour contender Ryan Fox in Kilkenny, but there’s 80/1 available for Meronk while his defeated rival is as short as 33/1 in places.

That discrepancy makes no sense to me and the value call is to side with Meronk, who should be full of confidence after his first European Tour win.

He was 59th on his only appearance at the Scottish Open in last year’s rendition.

A bit like Scheffler, an opening round 75 meant his week was over before it had started.

But he played well thereafter, with scores of 65-70-68. That included a double-bogey at the 18th on the final day.

Much like Fox, Meronk could not be in better form coming in to this week.

His last 10 tournaments have yielded a victory, a further three top-3s and two top-6 efforts.

He’s therefore finished in the top six in 60% of those 10 contests.

Meronk has negotiated winds in Dubai and Europe perfectly capably, this season and prior, so any forecast this week won’t deter him.

He’s played very well on these shores in the past, including third at the 2021 British Masters, tenth at the 2020 Irish Open and sixth at the 2020 Celtic Classic (at Celtic Manor).

There’s a lot to like, especially his odds, and he looks a decent value bet at the prices.

Rose can rock Renaissance early

JUSTIN ROSE is put forward as first-round leader.

He’s got a good pedigree at this tournament, with form figures reading 5/MC/MC/14/1/74/9.

Rose has shot opening rounds of 67, 66, 69, 69 and 65 in this event.

He was first-round leader in 2002, although admittedly that’s clutching at straws 20 years on!

Rose is the holder of the lowest round on the PGA Tour this season (60, Canadian Open) and despite his advancing years, is still perfectly capable of shooting a very low round.

His opening round 68 at the U.S. Open (which put him T-7th) was his best effort of the week and it’s hoped that trend will repeat itself in North Berwick this week.


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Golf Guru

2022 record | P&L: +108.73pts | ROI: +53.43%

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